Lok Sabha Elections 2024-A Post mortem
The results of the Lok Sabha elections 2024, are out and have surprised many of us. The BJP party which has been ruling for the last ten years with a comfortable majority of its own was facing this election with an inherent anti-incumbency factor. However, the party put up a brave face and announced a target of 370 seats to be achieved this time (400+ for the NDA) out of 543 which was far above its achievement in the 2019 elections. Not only the party but the country was surprised at this tall order. Looking back at what its charismatic leader, Narendra Modi, had been able to achieve in the past, everyone believed that it may be a possibility. As the slogan goes, 'Modi hai to mumkin hai'. But the results proved the BJP brass wrong as they not only missed the target of 370 but also missed the majority on their own i.e. 272.
Simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls, the elections to Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa assemblies were also held. BJP has won a majority in Arunachal and Orissa on its own while in Andhra, its NDA partner TDP has registered a comfortable win. Sikkim was wrested by the local Sikkim Krantikari Morcha. The forming of the BJP government in two of the above states and the NDA government in another state more than compensate for the losses in parliamentary elections.
An analysis of the gains and losses has been attempted hereunder to understand what went wrong with the strategy of the NDA this time, particularly the BJP. Out of 543 seats, NDA has been able to garner 291 (BJP:240, TDP:16, SS:7, JDU:12 & LJP:5), INDI Alliance bagged 234 seats (Cong:99, SP:37, TMC:29, DMK:22 & SS(UBT):9 while Others have got 18 seats (YSRC:4 & SAD:1 etc). NDA has a clear majority and can form government but no individual party has crossed the majority mark on its own.
1) Total Dependence on Modi's Charisma: The BJP has been totally dependent on the charisma of Modi and most of the MPs have contributed practically nothing to popularise the schemes of the government and establish a rapport with the people in their constituency. My personal experience is that the MP ( Even the MLA) of our area was not seen even once visiting our colony. On the other hand, Modi has himself shown exemplary energy and dedication to his work and his campaigning in the election was to be seen to be believed. This time he was even interviewed by many journalists. His continuous talking to the people in 'Man Ki Baat' on AIR has been one of his great strengths where people send him their questions and he tries to answer them.
2) Selection of Candidates: It is noticed that the selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha polls was done by the High Command centrally ignoring the ground realities and the feedback from the State CMs. Before elections, many a CM were changed fearing incumbency factor and their non-performance but some of them recorded victory on the hustings subsequently. Shivraj Singh Chouhan has won the Lok Sabha election with a record margin of over 8 lakhs. Firstly, while choosing the CMs initially proper caste, integrity and popularity factors must be taken into account so that they do not have to be replaced midway. They should be given a free hand to manage their states without rushing to the Centre for guidance.
3) The Unresolved Farmer's Agitation: The farmer's agitation kept engaging the Central Government for more than a year and even thereafter their demands were not properly addressed. It is emphasised that farmers form a large block of voters who can make or break the governments. The fact remains that the present government passed bills in parliament without consulting them which ignited the fire and consequently the government had to withdraw the bills. However, the incident allowed the farmers in north India to press for MSP and other demands to which the government did not agree. Everybody has seen what followed besides the insult to the National flag on the Red Fort. Disagreement on the issue has been simmering in the minds of farmers in Punjab and Haryana where BJP has recorded dismal performance. The farmers of UP led by Rakesh Tikait, though comparatively less pugnacious, have shown their resentment at the Lok Sabha polls. To make things worse the present government has developed an image to be pro-capitalists rather than pro-farmers. The narrative strengthened when the opposition called Modi a friend and benefactor of Adani and Ambani.
4) Justice Delayed: Several cases happened during the last five years where justice was not done promptly. The reason was that some kith and kin of BJP leaders were involved. Nabbing of culprits should have been done immediately on the occurrence of the incident and action taken not only to file FIRs against the accused but also to ensure the cases were taken to their logical end. The delayed action and that too under pressure from the public or social platforms has made people believe that influential people can get scot-free even if they commit heinous crimes. A fine example of such a case was the complaint of the female athletes who alleged that they were abused by their coach. This case was initially shelved and ultimately had to be followed up and is presently in the concerned court.
5) Uttar Pradesh Dilemma: The biggest surprise was thrown by the results of UP. The matter needs to be investigated properly as to what were the factors for such a dismal performance. I have already pointed out two factors; one, disagreement between Yogi Adityanath and the Centre in the choice of candidates, and the second, the after-effects of farmer's agitation. Probably the style of functioning of Yogi Adityanath may not have gone down well with the common public as it may have installed a sense of fear in their hearts though his actions are lauded by the intellectual and honest citizens. The marginalisation of Mayawati too has played a significant role in the outcome of polls. She totally withdrew from the election scene and did not actively participate as in the past and consequently, her vote bank got transferred to the SP-Congress combine.
6) Nonachievement of Primary Goals: It goes without doubt that the Modi government has failed to achieve some major goals like the implementation of UCC in the country. It wasted its time in sidelining the objective by passing legislation on CAA, NRC and Triple Talaq. It was possible that the government would have faced a lot of opposition on this account but it would have given confidence to the majority of Indians that the government means business rather than appeasement. Now with present dispensation, the UCC will have to go into the cold storage.
7) The Activities of ED/CBI: It is said that one should not only be honest but he should be seen to be honest. The present government has as per them allowed these agencies to be independent which has resulted in the unearthing of so much hoarded cash and so many corruption cases. But frankly speaking what happened to the people who left the country like Mallya, Modi, Choksi etc? We hear about them from election to election and now it is ages since they have absconded. Besides, how many cases of corruption and nepotism have been registered by these institutions during the last ten years and how many people out of them have been convicted? Does the National Herald case take so much time? What happened to the cases of the Saradha Chit fund? So many politicians are behind bars without chargesheets having been finalised. Imagine when the FIRs will be filed and when the courts will decide. Why hasn't legislation been passed to dedicate some courts to such cases only and get the cases investigated and decided promptly? No, the government does not want that but uses such cases only for adverse publicity of the opposition leaders. The present government is a firm believer in attrition and not punishment. In case the institutions are overburdened, they should only pick up cases which may have the lowest mortality rate and can be finalised soon. Unless the government shows its intent to really take to task the corrupt and dishonest, its clean image will gradually get eroded notwithstanding its claims to transparency and good governance.
Worse still is that the BJP has been crying all the time about many politicians involved in scams. The same politicians have been subsequently inducted into the party and offered lucrative posts. As a result, it is hard to believe that the government is sincere about cleaning the administrative set-up of corrupt people. The argument of the government spokesmen that the cases have not been withdrawn against such people and the law will take its own course is hard to digest by the common people. After so many years the biggest symbol of corruption, The Adarsh Building, still stands tall in Mumbai and no action has been taken against the culprits.
8) Breaking up Opposition Parties: Of late the BJP was possessed by an evil spirit which led it to bring down opposition governments in states. In some cases, they were successful and replaced them with a better and efficient government but in most cases, such acts only brought a bad name to the party especially where the alternative government indulged in corruption and nepotism. The BJP central command could not replace their own government for fear of revolt by the CM concerned who held influence among the major castes in the state. Naturally therefore a bad precedence was created. The best example is Karnataka, the only state in the South where BJP had been ruling for a long time. In respect of Maharashtra splitting of both Shiv Sena and NCP was yet another mistake committed by the high command of BJP. Split, of course, happened but at what cost? In the recent elections, the BJP could not register as many wins as it had done in 2019. This is beside what will be in store for forthcoming assembly elections. A similar attempt was made in HP which, however, failed.
9) Price rise and Unemployment: There is no doubt that the present government has had to face severe times. Conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine have been there for more than a year. The coronavirus pandemic created havoc all across the world and affected the economies. India has been able to survive all these and maintain its growth. But people do not go by the reasons they only accept what they perceive. On the other hand, the government has emphasised avoiding overburdening of exchequer through unproductive employment and laid stress on skill development and self-employment besides expanding private employment opportunities. The people in India under the influence of socialist regimes in the past have got used to believing that employment means only regular government employment with pensionary benefits as in the olden days. Accordingly, the Opposition parties exploited the situation and created a false narrative that there is rampant unemployment and price rise in India. They even went hammer and tongs against the Indian Army Agniveer Scheme since it is a short-term engagement only. So despite the creation of private-sector employment, the people were made to believe that the government was not interested in these areas to help the poor.
On the other hand, there is, however, a positive side of the coin too which is discussed in brief as follows:
1) Expansion of Network: The present government has not focussed on the vote-catching areas only but expanded the reach of the party to every nook and corner of the country. The party was born after the emergency, though it already had a base in the form of erstwhile Jana Sangh which had amalgamated with other parties to form the Janta Party. In the first attempt, it got only 2 seats in the Lok Sabha. The concerted efforts made initially by L K Advani and Vajpayee, the Rath Yatra and the Ram Temple episode helped it not only revive its image as a Hindutava Party but also gain an immense voter base so much so that the party was able to form a government under the able leadership of Vajpayee. Later the ten-year interregnum of Manmohan Singh as Congress PM allowed it to introspect and it bounced back under the unmatched leadership of Narendra Modi in 2014. He has been very industrious and focused on ensuring that the BJP flag is hoisted in all the states in the country. He concentrated his efforts on developing infrastructure in hitherto neglected areas of the Northeast, which yielded good results. Today the party not only rules in Assam but Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh as well. It has also made deep inroads in West Bengal and replaced CPI(M) and Congress as the main opposition party in the state. In the elections recently held for Odisha assembly the party is likely to form its own government for the first time. Gujarat, UP, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Himachal, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Goa and Maharashtra have also welcomed the growth of BJP at the grassroots level. The resistance is seen in J&K and Punjab besides the southern states like AP, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala etc. Some hiccups have of late been experienced in Maharashtra. However, it is a matter of immense joy for the party to have made inroads in Andhra, Telangana and Kerala in the recently concluded elections.
2) Integration of the Country: While efforts have been made to settle differences with extremist groups in the Northeast and many of these have already joined the mainstream, even the Naxals have been either exterminated or reined in and many of them have surrendered to the army. Peace has prevailed in the region except in Manipur which saw a rise in ethnic clashes recently abetted by internal and external forces. The greatest achievement in this regard has been a reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir State into two Union territories i.e. UT of J&K and UT of Ladakh. Article 370 of the Constitution which granted special status to the State has been removed once and for all.
3) Infrastructural and Industrial Development: There is no doubt about the rapid strides taken by the country in infrastructural development and industrial growth. Today India has attained fifth position in the developed countries in the world. Road networks, Airports, and Railways have shown a marked improvement. Many AIIMS, hospitals and medical colleges have been added to the existing ones. During the Covid epidemic, the country made its own vaccination and even supplied it to needy countries rather than depending on Western MNCs. Besides the government provided houses, toilets and gas connections to millions in the vast country.
4) Harnessing of Terror activities: The present government was able to curb the terror activities within the country besides stopping the neighbouring countries from encroaching on our lands or helping the terror outfits. Incidents of terror since 2014 have been minimal as compared to previous periods.
5) International Relations: Ever since the present government has come into existence relations with foreign countries barring a few inimical neighbouring countries have improved a lot. The world listens to India now. Even during the Ukraine and Palestinian conflicts, the country has stood its ground and not come under the influence of either the USA or Russia. Many international meets were organised in the country during the period.
The present government has done tremendous work in many areas, but I need more time to dwell upon them. Suffice it to say that now that Narendra Modi is going to be the PM of India for the third time but with a slender majority that too depending upon the NDA partners, rapid and risky steps may not be taken this time and he will have to move with caution and care. I wish him the best in his future endeavours.
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